The Bookies Favor Lewis Hamilton in the United States Grand Prix
Author:
Roy Brindley
The bookmakers may not be able to separate them in the World Drivers’ Championship betting but on Sunday, racing at the Circuit of the Americas, they favor Lewis Hamilton ahead of rival Max Verstappen. A circuit featuring some really fast and flowing corners, the Texan track also has great technical sections, and it provides plenty of overtaking opportunities.
This weekend there should be no repeat of the wet conditions drivers faced in Turkey last time. ?Bryn Lennon/Getty Images
This race was first staged at this venue in 2012. On that occasion, it was won by Hamilton in a McLaren. Four more victories and a pair of placed efforts have followed.
It is fair to say Max Verstappen has not always had the equipment to do his talent justice. But he has been on the podium for the last two editions of this contest.
Warm Not Wet
Given recent events, punters’ first port of call should be the weather forecast. At the time of writing a sunny/cloudy scenario is predicted.
Three of the last five Grand Prix – Belgium, Russia, and Turkey – have been affected by rain. This time a rare phenomenon, the heat might prove to be the proverbial spanner in the works.
Since the introduction of new turbo-hybrid engines in 2014, Mercedes have always struggled in high temperatures. We are possibly scaremongering as Hamilton’s Mercedes has won in the heat here many times before.
A high of 31 degrees is the current forecast race day temperature. It is towards the top end of the Mercedes optimum operating window but just within it.
A bigger concern for all teams is brake wear. The braking zone at turn 12 generates over 5G in braking force. The opening 135-degree turn at the end of the uphill straight pulls something similar. But this is an equal playing field, and it is the same for all teams and drivers.
The top speeds and gear selection required to truly master the Circuit of the Americas. ?MercedesF1
Excited Team Bosses Are Enjoying the Challenge
If team bosses have any indication of how this weekend is likely to pan out, they are certainly not telling anyone. In prepared statements, Red Bull’s team boss Christian Horner said: “Austin has been a Hamilton stronghold, so we are going to have to be at the very top of our game. It’s great to be in this fight and the whole team is really enjoying it.”
Rival Toto Wolff was equally laid-back on Tuesday saying: “This season has had so many twists and turns, so we’re ready to react to whatever comes our way this weekend in Texas. We’re excited to be back in Austin for the first time since 2019. It’s always a popular stop on the calendar and we can’t wait to see all the passionate American fans.”
Rest assured by opening practice on Friday the gloves will be off and the teams will be at one another like a pair of rabid pit bulls in an angry face-off.
Choose Your Bets Not Your Favorites
The championship battle between Hamilton and Verstappen has fans spellbound and they will take the bulk of the bets. But if you are having a bet on this weekend’s race it could be worth taking a glance at some of the more obscure betting markets.
We believe the odds compilers may have spent too much time assessing the relative merits of the ‘big two’ and might have made some mistakes away from the traditional ‘who will win’ market.
A prime example is the odds on the use of a Safety Car. William Hill is offering 5/4 about it not being needed. Only used here twice and parked up throughout the race six times since 2012, this price looks extremely generous. Do not forget, despite the constant rain in Turkey it was not needed at the last race a fortnight ago.
Ladbrokes is another betting firm that may have made a mistake. Remaining in business since 1886 they have clearly made very few judgment errors. But offering 13/10 about a winning margin between 0.00 and 5.999 seconds looks like one of them.
This bet would have been a winner six times in the past. Cars simply do not win by big margins at this Texan venue. The biggest ever margin was 10.1 seconds in 2017 and 2013s race was won by just 6.2 seconds.
