The U.S. Presidential Race Is on and It Is Too Close to Call
Author:
Roy Brindley
A month ago, Joe Biden, already the oldest U.S. President in history, formally announced he is running for re-election in 2024. If successful, Biden will be 86 at the end of his second term in office.
“When I ran for President four years ago, I said we are in a battle for the soul of America. And we still are,” he said during a pre-recorded video message announcing his candidacy.
Will it be the familiar foes battling for the Presidency in 2024? ?GettyImages
“The question we are facing is whether, in the years ahead, we have more freedom or less freedom. More rights or fewer? I know what I want the answer to be, and I think you do too. This is not a time to be complacent. That’s why I’m running for re-election.”
Age Matters but No Concerns for Trump
According to a recent NBC News survey, 70 percent of U.S. adults do not think Biden should run for President again. Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed cite his age as either a “major” or “minor” reason for their belief.
NBCs survey also showed two-thirds of Republican primary voters said they stand behind former President Donald Trump and “dismiss concerns about his electability” despite his recent criminal arrest and other legal investigations into his past conduct.
But have these supporters given any thought to Donald Trump’s age? He is less than four years younger than Joe Biden. It means he would become the oldest person to be elected President if regaining office in the November 2024 election.
Biden Short but Has Been Shorter
In addition to opinion polls, the U.S. Presidential Election betting sites provide a fascinating insight into what we can expect in the run-up and during the next election. It is scheduled for November 5th, the date Brits call Bonfire Night. Will the formbook be set ablaze?
Biden is already on the drift in the ‘Who will be the Democratic candidate?’ betting. 4/7 before declaring his intention to run, his odds were immediately slashed to 1/7 when the announcement was made. Odds compilers have since thawed, and they now have Biden priced at 1/4.
The current Vice-President, Kamala Harris, can be backed on 20/1 at William Hill. The firm does not quote former First Ladies, Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton, but others do and the pair are 16/1 and 33/1 respectively.
No Chaos Ron 5/2 to Topple the Don
The betting on who will lead the Republicans into battle is dominated by two people: Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Clearly influenced by the polls, online bookmakers currently quote Trump on 4/9. At the start of 2023, his odds were 15/8.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, described by Irish broadcaster RTE as “offering Republicans a version of Trumpism without the chaos that often accompanies the twice-impeached former president,” is available on 5/2. Nikki Haley and Tom Scott follow in the betting at a dismissive 33/1.
What If Independents Voted Independent?
Ultimately, it is far from clear who will take the Commander-in-Chief White House seat in January 2025. The best odds betting sites have Biden trading as the 6/4 favorite. Trump follows on 5/2, and DeSantis can be backed on 5/1.
In the betting for the party of the winner, the odds compilers marginally favor the Republicans. They are priced on 10/11. The Democrats are even-money, and any Independent is 33/1.
Interestingly, a February Gallup poll found that while 28 percent of Americans identified as Democrats, and 27 percent as Republicans, 44 percent described themselves as independents.
Furthermore, a March Harvard-Harris poll found that 53 percent of Americans would consider voting for an independent moderate presidential candidate over either Biden or Trump.
Therefore, in this instance, the old cliché of “back the biggest outsider of three” in a market of this nature might not be the worst suggestion since Liz Truss will not spend three months in charge of the UK at similar odds!
